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Download A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation: Based on by Prof., Ph D Marc Ivaldi (auth.) PDF

By Prof., Ph D Marc Ivaldi (auth.)

Using panel info of person companies drawn from French surveys, a structural research is constructed to check the formation of construction plans and the rationality of expectancies. The construction selection of an organization is outlined because the optimum resolution of a dynamic stochastic optimization challenge. The empirical paintings quantities to improving the structural parameters characterizing the version of the company from estimates of the derived determination rule. The previous research of construction plans relies at the assumption that organizations are rational. To justify this assumption, direct exams provide proof that the Rational expectancies speculation will not be rejected for volume variables.

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Extra resources for A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation: Based on Business Surveys of French Manufacturing Industry

Example text

1. According to the arguments advanced in the discussion of the production-smoothing model, this observation could mean that, for France, cost shocks should not be the major effect affecting the production behavior. 1: Variances of the Balances (production and deaand changes) PRODUCTION DEMAND FRANCE 1. ~------------------------------------------------, A L A N C E 10. -10 A , -, , , ...... I' ", ", J " . 2. The Production Plan of a Rational FiDll Before presenting the model in detail, let us briefly present its main characteristics and how it should be interpreted.

2. The Production Plan of a Rational FiDll Before presenting the model in detail, let us briefly present its main characteristics and how it should be interpreted. Each firm solves a stochastic control problem and the objective is to minimize expected discounted production level. demand There is one control variable: The The firm faces two exogenous sources of uncertainty, (or sales) processes. cost. and cost shocks, which follow known stochastic Inventories and backlogs (both are simultaneously present because products are heterogenous) are production activity of the firm over time.

On a set of very strong assumptions. For long, the use of micro-data has 26 been advocated as a means to avoid such assumptions because they permit us to take into account a large variety of behavior. Second, if there is a general agreement among researchers for assuming that, in the production smoothing model, production decisions must be derived by solving a dynamic stochastic optimization problem, the distinguished features of the latter are however questionable. Indeed, the most common (production smoothing) model admits a linear quadratic objective function in the perspective of applying the "firstperiod-certainty-equivalence" principle, empirically tractable models.

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